Most Americans still don’t know about REAL ID—and the TSA estimates as many as half of all Americans who fly every average day could be turned away from airports when the deadline begins for all domestic flights to have REAL-ID checks.

The deadline is October 1st, 2020, and even though the Department of Homeland Security is adamant that its tough luck if you don’t have the new ID standard, political experts are shaking their heads.

The lack of public awareness plus the election only a month after the deadline leads many to suggest the DHS will have to delay—again.

Political expediency is likely one of the reasons the deadline will be pushed back. President Trump simply isn’t likely to impede American’s ability to fly a month before they decide whether or not he stays in office for a second term.

Economic reasons are another pressure on the DHA to extend the deadline– economists estimate the first day could cost the economy $40 million.

For now, though, REAL ID will be a necessity this next year.